Somewhat out of character for an old fantasy curmudgeon, I’ll be trying something new here — slapping a happy face sticker on everything in sight. We just spent months hearing how every pick on the board can go wrong, and Michael Salfino boiled that all down with his annual Hater’s Ball column. I’m countering his sour takes, as it’s high time for a little optimism.
Note: These are the picks in the order of FantasyPros ADP
Christian McCaffrey, SF — Zero imagination needed — the perfect player in the perfect situation.
Tyreek Hill, MIA — Just another year for the Cheetah, breaking historical separation barriers in defensive secondaries league-wide. If you returned from outer space to learn a WR broke the yardage record, who’s the first guy you think of? Exactly.
CeeDee Lamb, DAL — The mere thought Lamb could build off of last season’s masterclass in wide receiver usage gives me fantasy chills. How many 10-150 games can he string together in a row this year?
Justin Jefferson, MIN — Guess what? Sam Darnold is above replacement level at the quarterback position, meeting the only requirement necessary for JJ to succeed.
Bijan Robinson, ATL — Take that, Arthur Smith! With adults in the room, stars finally dominate touches in the “dirty-dirty” as Robinson invokes weekly reminders of LaDainian Tomlinson.
Breece Hall, NYJ — Wait, you mean to tell me the guy who was downright phenomenal attached to the worst QB play in a century improved with a Hall of Famer?
Ja’Marr Chase, CIN — The most prolific shower narrative in a generation runs wild once more with a healthy Joe Burrow at the helm — we’ve forgotten how insanely good Chase is at the top of his game.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET — Detroit’s star WR silences the “ARSB is just a slot guy and stat compiler” critics — St. Brown runs away with the reception crown and a dozen TDs to boot.
A.J. Brown, PHI — The addition of Jahan Dotson winds up being a huge plus for Brown, sliding him into the slot more than ever to create yards-after-catch opportunities in a CeeDee Lamb-esque utilization scheme. Whoa.
Saquon Barkley, PHI — Finally unburdened by what had been terrible contextual environments for years, even splitting TDs can’t keep Barkley from a career-year behind that Eagles O-line.
Jonathan Taylor, IND — Remember back in the day (two years ago) when fantasy GMs considered Taylor for the 1.01? JT reclaims that path in his first full healthy season under Shane Steichen’s system.
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET — For just the zillionth time in recorded history, it turns out NFL coaches lied to us and the Lions were just protecting Gibbs. He winds up displaying game-breaking dual-threat ability across a whole season in a top 3 RB finish.
Garrett Wilson, NYJ — Another top 5 target season on deck for Garrett Wilson, except this time from a talented shot-caller for once. Wilson could’ve been a top 15 overall pick without a QB upgrade — are you ready for a Devante Adams-type season in green and white?
Puka Nacua, LAR — Maybe, just maybe Nacua’s rookie season won’t even be his best, and we’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg. An entire offseason’s worth of breakfasts with Cooper Kupp help convert more targets into catches — and that efficiency puts him over the top in an explosive McVay-led offense.
Marvin Harrison Jr., ARI — All that late draft-season helium for the Cardinals still falls short of its realization — Harrison’s better than expected in a historic rookie season on a surprising top 5 Arizona offense.
Travis Etienne Jr., JAC — The Jaguars tried to warn us — they view Etienne as a bell-cow RB but we just wouldn’t listen. A second straight 325-touch season in with red zone efficiency vaults Etienne firmly into the 2025 first round.
Kyren Williams, LAR — It takes until halftime in Week 1 to realize the Blake Corum panic in L.A. was wildly overblown in fantasy circles. Williams reassumes one of the premiere roles in the game under Sean McVay, crushing his draft slot.
Derrick Henry, BAL — Benefactor to a tremendous environmental leap, Henry proves (once again) age is just a number — and he’s the exception to the rule. Lamar Jackson spends all year getting the Ravens to the red zone, only for the big man to punch it in, as he leads the NFL in rushing TDs by a mile.
Davante Adams, LV — Gardner Minshew’s willingness to push the ball downfield with Adams’ ability to win in the secondary and go get it alleviates all worries from the get-go — Davante reminds everyone why he’s still one of the best WRs on the planet.
De’Von Achane, MIA — Not a single fantasy gamer among us was unaware of Achane’s ceiling — yet he still fell in drafts. No one combines speed with schematics to attack empty real estate like Mike McDaniel, and 2024 is the young guru’s pièce de résistance with Achane as the engine.
Drake London, ATL — Great players leaving bad scenarios for greener pastures and thriving remains the running theme for my optimistic outlooks. London’s a stud, no doubt. Except this time around, grown-ups call the plays featuring a QB who can actually elevate his surrounding skill players.
Josh Allen, BUF — Buffalo’s tough defense, plus their failure to find an apples-to-apples replacement for Stefon Diggs, creates a ton of close games. This inevitably forces Allen into weekly hero mode, when his rushing totals skyrocket with the team on his back.
Josh Jacobs, GB — Last year everyone was trying to find last year’s Josh Jacobs. What if this year, this year’s Josh Jacobs is… Josh Jacobs? We know the ceiling outcome is a league winner, although in 2024 it’s for an ascendant offense that scores TDs. Also, AJ Dillon is out for the season — the chances for a ceiling outcome just shot up.
Isiah Pacheco, KC — Experienced three-down back potential with very little competition in an Andy Reid offense led by Patrick Mahomes. Nuff said.
Chris Olave, NO — Derek Carr playing through injuries last year damaged the fantasy outlook of all skill-position Saints coming in. Olave’s pathway to glory is fairly obvious — convert a higher percentage of those +114 prayer yards/game into receiving yards on the actual box score. Find the end zone, and voila.
Deebo Samuel Sr., SF — The only thing a player with Deebo’s dynamism needs is space to operate with the football. Lucky for him, he’s the got ideal coach/QB system to achieve just that. (Whispers) Also, not to put something so negative out into the universe, but if CMC misses time, Samuel could be the most coveted piece in fantasy. And let’s not overlook the fact that Elijah Mitchell is out for the season, which could add some carries to Deebo’s dinner plate.
Travis Kelce, KC — I’ve avoided using the “H-word” to the best of my abilities, but Kelce’s track record is crystal clear — a healthy season and full complement of snaps from No. 87 can break the TE position.
Nico Collins, HOU — The NFL’s next great QB/WR mind-meld takes a very predictable step forward in a Stafford-to-Megatron type fantasy explosion. Nico gets considered in the top 3 overall next year.
Sam LaPorta, DET — Very few tight ends can command a +24% target/route for a game, let alone an entire season, especially as a rookie. LaPorta’s ceiling could be the best TE season ever, leaving last year’s breakout to be looked back on as a new floor.
Jalen Hurts, PHI — Can someone say “Tush Push” or “Bum Scrum”? As impossible as it seems to project a QB for more than a dozen rushing TDs, give me the guy who can squat 1,000 pounds while throwing for 250 yards/game to do it.
Patrick Mahomes, KC — Barring some intergalactic alien invasion, Mahomes does Mahomes things and stretches the bounds of our imagination for excellence (again).
Rachaad White, TB — Now things get interesting. White should continue to command the lion’s share of touches in Tampa Bay but will have to stave off rookie Bucky Irving in terms of rushing efficiency to repeat such a great season. If White progresses between the tackles, it’s wheels up on a massive RB1 discount.
James Cook, BUF — I wasn’t properly prepared for how tough this would be when we reach the players I’m not drafting. Cook reaches his ceiling outcome by sustaining the carry load we saw down the stretch, but also adding in the passing game. Lucky for him, there’s a target void to be filled — he just has to seize the opportunity.
Michael Pittman Jr., IND — Pittman racked up 25% of Indy’s target total plus half the team’s red zone looks with Anthony Richardson under center. Extrapolate and enjoy.
Brandon Aiyuk, SF — Step 1, stay in San Francisco (check). Step 2, exist (check).
Cooper Kupp, LAR — For all the overreactions across the fantasy landscape, the easiest one to imagine going nuclear (because it just happened!) seems to get hand-waved as an impossibility. Kupp could fall short of a 2021 repeat and still finish as the 1.01 again.
Mike Evans, TB — Father Time comes for us all but not yet for Evans. Another strong season under center from Baker Mayfield validates his viability, with the veteran wideout playing the engine of the aerial attack. Very few things are as certain as death, taxes, and Mike Evans’ 1,000 receiving yards.
Stefon Diggs, HOU — For starters, Houston finally stops running the ball into the back of the O-line on every first down. Then, Diggs does his best late-career Larry Fitzgerald impression as an absolute target hog from the slot and in the red zone during a historic Texans’ passing season from C.J. Stroud.
Jaylen Waddle, MIA — Last year’s second-round revenge tour manifests to its fullest in Miami. Waddle’s one of the few players in this range who doesn’t need an injury to explode. The Dolphins’ creativity gets expressed through the league’s most narrow target tree, resulting in a career yardage total and double-digit TDs.
DJ Moore, CHI — Caleb Williams rocks under Shane Waldron’s new system! They focus on throwing deep outside the numbers and Moore finally gets blessed with the arm talent to thrive on his way to a top 6 fantasy WR finish.
Lamar Jackson, BAL — What does this man have to do? Lamar has shown us the ability to run for 1,200 yards and pass for 3,600 more — this time, he does them both in the same season — MVP.
DK Metcalf, SEA — Metcalf could have easily put up the season I’m here to describe if he and Geno Smith just ran hot on scoring outcomes. All we need? The pendulum to swing the other direction on target conversions, starting with another +20 end zone opportunities.
Kenneth Walker III, SEA — If you’re listening to anything out of Seahawks’ camp or the pressers afterward, you’d think Walker already posted the monster RB1 season everyone expected after his senior year at Michigan State. Sprinkle in a slight uptick in receiving work and you don’t have to squint too hard to see a top 5 fantasy RB.
Joe Mixon, HOU — Usage, usage, and more usage. Attach enough critical high-value RB touches to an offense like Houston’s and enjoy the profits. It’s probably going to take some compiling but, hey, those fantasy points count all the same
Alvin Kamara, NO — Kendre Miller opening the season on the PUP list would be the first domino to fall, which just happened. Shouldn’t take much more than health for expectations of Kamara posting a great fantasy season playing on a fast track, without serious competition for high-value touches.
Malik Nabers, NYG — You don’t need me to wax poetic on Nabers, just go ask Twitter. I cannot remember another player with a consensus redraft ADP of 46 who goes inside best ball’s top 20 all day, every day.
DeVonta Smith, PHI — Last year’s second-round revenge tour strikes again in one of the most obvious “buy low” spots on the board. There aren’t many (if any) more desirable WR2 spots than the 1B in Philly.
Trey McBride, ARI — Take that insane seven-game span last year featuring +9 targets/game and level it up. Mix in a healthy, functional offseason with Kyler Murray, and McBride could take Travis Kelce’s old spot in the backend of the first round.
C.J. Stroud, HOU — It’s going to take a change from the booth to get Stroud past the running QBs, but it sure does look like the Texans are setting their pieces to do just that. Dial up the pass volume with a year of further understanding from Stroud, to go with a failed running game, and it’s easy to see him eclipsing 5,000 yards and 40 TD.
Mark Andrews, BAL — Not to cop out on my way out the door, but no player has ever been more consistent when not injuredthan Andrews. He plays every down, commanding targets all over the field, including being the favorite for looks in the end zone. Seventeen games in the second year of this scheme could mean the TE1 finish we’ve been waiting on for some time now.
(Top photo of CeeDee Lamb: Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
